Most of you know that world-peak-oil production has probably already occurred and that the World Model Standard Run shows aggregated-industrial-production (yes, including China) peaking within ten years. This means a reduction in industrial throughput, financial investment, and many forms of pollution. Recall that reduction of throughput is one of the two criteria (the other is population reduction) necessary for a stabilized world economy. Hopeful as these developments are, remember that resources are very badly distributed and that bioregions such as Africa must endure large scale famines and local wars during the decades of transition to stability. This is sadly inevitable since African soils can’t produce sustainable food for more than about 300 million people maximum. Africa has 1 billion+ in 2011. The result of an African population reduction will be a resurgence of natural ecosystems which are necessary for a stable population. (See paper on pathogens)
Other bioregions are more complex, but will also experience the trauma of contraction. Particularly worrisome are the hundreds of millions of unemployed young men whose problems have always been solved in the past by sending them to make wars in other countries. However, instant cell phone communication makes it a whole new ball game. War avoidance? More coordinated warfare? Comments?